A future with two visions

As Rewiring Aotearoa's policy manifesto shows, New Zealand is at a critical point in its energy transition. Customers are facing rising electricity, gas, and petrol costs, there are supply challenges for the grid and natural gas, and increasing pressure to find sustainable alternatives as reliance on fossil fuels becomes less viable.

The way we see it, there are two options:

1. We can continue to back a broken system that New Zealanders are losing faith (and money) in, continue to protect the big incumbents, and preserve a status quo that is not fit for purpose. 
2. We can back customers, back the country as a whole and back a cheaper, cleaner, more secure and more productive future. 

Would you like to: 

1. Do the bare minimum and focus only on the problems of today? Click here to see what things could look like in 2030.
2. Do it properly and focus on the future? Click here to see what things could look like in 2030

*Note: these scenarios are illustrative narratives, not economic models or price forecasts. Figures shown are hypothetical and should not be cited as predictions.

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Option 1: Do the bare minimum

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‍Welcome to 2030. Not much has changed in the energy sector - except the amount you're paying. 

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Inertia is a powerful force. There’s always more effort - and more money - put into maintaining the current state of things and, sadly, the status quo has largely been preserved. There has been some fiddling around the edges and technological trends have meant the uptake of electric machines and solar and batteries has continued to grow, but our electricity bills are much higher, we’re still reliant on fossil fuels for most of our energy and we haven’t put much of a dent in our emissions.

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‍What does this world look like?

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• There are still a lot of new cars being bought and maybe 10% of them are electric. This is locking us into a few more decades of increasingly expensive imported fossil fuels and unnecessary emissions that will now likely take us past the Paris agreement as these cars might last to 2050.  

• Heat pumps and induction cooktops are growing in popularity, but plumbers and developers are still putting in gas hot water systems, gas fires and gas cooktops because the sticker price is lower and the lifetime costs aren’t made clear. As more people get off the gas network, the price of gas continues to go up for those who are stuck on it. 

• The average utilisation of our poles and wires remains at an average of 35%, but our peak load problem is getting bigger as demand for electricity increases. EDBs and Transpower are incentivised to build more poles and wires to cope with those peaks (as they still get a guaranteed return on what they do) rather than find ways to make better use of our existing poles and wires. We’re spending unnecessary billions and all of it ends up on customers’ bills. 

• Despite more renewable generation being built and solar panels and batteries continuing to drop in price, the price per unit of electricity has risen to around 40c (up from around 35c in 2025). Over half of that is to pay for the poles and wires. Hardship is still a problem as the cost of living continues to increase and energy hardship is a major cause. 

• Higher demand for electricity exacerbates supply and dry year issues. Fossil fuels still provide the most expensive electricity and set the price for the rest of the market. More businesses are forced to stop operating or move somewhere with cheaper energy, economic growth is weak and our balance of trade deficit continues to widen because we are still so reliant on imported fossil fuels, which continue to increase in price. Around two-thirds of our total energy still comes from fossil fuels and we continue to pay some of the highest prices in the world for them. 

• 5-8% homes have solar, up from 3% five years ago and around one quarter of them might have a battery. Retailers and distributors are paying customers slightly more for their exports, but they are still not rewarding customers fairly for their contribution to the energy system. This means the payback period is longer than it should be and the economic signals for others to invest are not as strong. 

• Low-interest green loans from the banks are still hard to get, only available to mortgage holders and don’t last long enough. Only those with the money or access to a loan will be able to invest in this technology and reduce their energy bills. EDBs and Transpower are still able to access loans to build poles and wires on terms that households can only dream of, despite households with solar and batteries potentially offering the same service to the network.

• Those who can’t access a loan and arguably need the savings more than anyone will be stranded on the increasingly expensive gas and electricity networks or stuck with their increasingly expensive petrol and diesel cars. Because we don’t have any EV incentives, New Zealand will be a dumping ground for petrol and diesel imports from countries that do.

• Despite manufacturing costs of solar and batteries continuing to drop, the price to install solar has not dropped and remains at around $2,000 per kW in New Zealand, largely because of the inefficient processes and unnecessary red tape. 

• Most schools are still without solar panels and batteries because the system isn’t set up for them to benefit directly from the cost savings. They - and many other businesses - will have even more limited options to choose new gas suppliers, who will continue to put prices up. 

• Focusing on unproven technologies like carbon capture and overseas offsets rather than electrifying the small fossil fuel machines in our economy means our emissions have only declined slightly. 

What does this world feel like? 

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I don’t feel like I can control what’s coming. It seems like my electricity bills and fuel bills are just going to keep increasing. The politicians have been talking about fixing this for years, but nothing seems to have changed. We still have shortages during winter but the big electricity companies seem to keep making money. We feel a bit trapped as we watch more and more of the climate impacts hit the world and our shores.

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Given all the geopolitical strife that's going on, New Zealand feels increasingly vulnerable. What if the boats carrying the fossil fuels we're so reliant on don't turn up? What do we do then? When we have all these renewable resources it seems crazy and really inefficient to still be relying on oil. It feels like we've wasted an opportunity to show the world what's possible.

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We know a few people with solar, batteries and EVs, but they generally have the money or access to a loan. It’s a lot to spend upfront and we don’t have much to spare given all the other rising costs. Plus, it’s really complicated, confusing and time-consuming. It seems like you have to be really keen and a bit of an energy nerd to go down that path. 

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Option 2: Do it properly

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Welcome to 2030. The energy system was modernised, the economy continues to go electric, productivity is up, emissions are down and all New Zealanders are benefitting in multiple ways.

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Fortunately, the decision makers took Rewiring Aotearoa's vision and ran with it. The system was redesigned to fit the current era, policies were enacted to harness modern technology and reward customers fairly rather than just protecting incumbents, the cost of electricity has been reduced for all New Zealanders by reducing the need for expensive infrastructure and incentivising electrification and solar, emissions have been slashed due to lower fossil fuel requirements, and New Zealand has sent the world a postcard from a cleaner, cheaper, more productive and more resilient electric future. 

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What does this world look like?* 

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• Our infrastructure needs remain modest and no huge upgrades to infrastructure have been required because customers with solar and batteries and demand flexibility tools have reduced the need for it. Network utilisation is averaging 60-80% and the price per kwh has dropped to around 30c, with around one third of that from poles and wires. Hardship is still an issue, but energy hardship is a much smaller part of that. 

• The Commerce Commission now requires Transpower and EDBs to properly explore solar and batteries and demonstrate the NEED to build new poles and wires. They are held to account against utilisation rates. 

• Households, SMEs and farms are able to access low-interest long-term loans for electrification (and low-income homes that qualify are able to access grants) so the adoption curve of heat pumps for water and rooms, induction cooktops, solar, batteries, and EVs has risen quickly. 

• The Electricity Authority requires price signals that properly reward customers for exporting at peak times, including all winter during a dry year. 

• Between 30-40% of homes have solar and 80-90% of those have a battery. The price of panels has continued to drop and the cost to install solar is around $1,000 per kW, mostly because training schemes have been established and red tape has been cut. EA/Worksafe has made it all very easy to install and EECA/MBIE have updated all the regulations so that the new tech can be signed off and enabled within weeks. 

• 50-60% of farms have solar, many farmers are driving electric utes, and big electric tractors and combine harvesters are now economic without subsidies. 

• We are using much more electricity, but we have been able to address our peak load problems the extra demand is coming from ‘behind-the-meter’ (i.e. being used by homes, farms and businesses with solar and batteries). Through this extra use of electricity, we are now using far less energy overall, because electric machines are doing the same tasks with half or a quarter of the energy of their wasteful fossil fuel equivalents. 

• Rooftop and farm solar has added a significant amount of new electricity generation since 2025 (without the need for more poles and wires) and more large-scale renewable generation (mostly wind and grid-scale solar) has added to that. Better low voltage network visibility enables EDBs to make the most out of these assets. 

• The country’s fuel security is increasingly robust year on year as all the extra solar helps to keep our hydro lakes full and has reduced the need to burn coal or gas. As there is more sun in a dry year, solar is meaningfully helpful when it is needed most and batteries help manage daily peaks.

• Weather events continue to increase in ferocity and disrupt life, but communities, the medically vulnerable and households are able to cope better because there is more solar, batteries and EVs. All community emergency hubs are fitted with solar and batteries and EVs are able to run homes for weeks. There is now more energy resilience to keep the lights on than our communities have ever seen before.

• Around 30% of new cars are EVs and many of them are plugged into vehicle-to-grid. Owners are incentivised to power their homes at peak or feed into the system via their car when the price signals are there. These cars and all the home batteries will eventually have a larger capacity than all of New Zealand’s current power stations combined.

• Energy ratings stickers give customers clear information about what they actually want to know, like the annual and lifetime costs to run different kinds of machines and what it will mean for their bills. The price gap between fossil fuel machines and electric machines continues to grow as the cost to power them drops and the price of fuels continues to rise.

• Renters are aware of the costs of energy in all properties and landlords are incentivised to install solar and electric machines with low-interest loans or ‘comfort levies’ added to the rent in exchange for lowering bills. 

• All schools are covered in solar panels and many have batteries. Their savings on energy are able to be put towards other things that schools need, rather than going back to the Ministry of Education. 

• The Queenstown Electrification Accelerator has proven that electrification creates the lowest bills, lowest emissions and highest resilience, put New Zealand on the map for climate action, and shown the world what's possible.

• Electric planes are doing short-haul commuter and signtseeing flights. Air New Zealand has started flying passengers on electric planes on some of its shorter routes. 

• New Zealand’s reliance on expensive imported fossil fuels has fallen significantly, farmers and businesses can produce the same goods and services with lower energy costs, our economic productivity has increased, and our balance of trade deficit has improved greatly. 

• Focusing on upgrading fossil fuel machines to electric machines run on renewable electricity has slashed our emissions, especially for transport, and the world sees New Zealand as a glowing example of a productive, low-emissions economy.

What does this world feel like? 

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All these changes have made solar, batteries and my V2G-enabled EV and bidirectional charger more economical. Getting everything installed was easy and quick because a lot of the unnecessary red tap has gone. 

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I use a lot more electricity now, but my total energy bills have decreased substantially, even though I took out a low-interest loan to upgrade my machines and get solar and batteries.

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I feel like I have more agency now. I’m not just a consumer of energy and a creator of emissions, I’m a participant in the energy system and my home and car can actually play a positive role. The economic signals have changed my behaviour, I’m more engaged in my energy usage and I get rewarded fairly for my contributions. We’re getting paid roughly wholesale rates for our exports plus higher rates when we push back power at peak times. 

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This transition hs been great for New Zealand and it just makes sense for us to have gone this way with all our renewable resources. Because we don't need to import as much expensive fossil fuel, we're more self-sufficient and everyone's incentivised to use more affordable, locally-made electricity. That means our books are looking a lot better, there's more money staying in the country, there's more funding for important things like schools and hospitals, and other countries see us as a demonstration project for the world.

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Where's the vision? 

When you look around at all the cars, utes, planes, buses, homes and businesses, weaning ourselves off petrol, diesel and gas can sometimes seem like an insurmountable challenge. But there’s a long list of things that people said weren’t possible that are now completely taken for granted. And there's a long list of predictions about the speed of solar and EV uptake that are way off.

In 1901, Wilbur Wright said after a test flight “Not within a thousand years will man ever fly”; just two years later in 1903, the Wright Brothers famously took flight. 

Many believed that cars, computers, and mobile phones would not take hold and a banker told Henry Ford’s lawyer that “the horse is here to stay - the automobile is a novelty; a fad”.

And there were many who told Rewiring Aotearoa CEO Mike Casey it wouldn’t be possible to run a cherry orchard without diesel.

Our vision is for New Zealand to become the world’s most electric economy and it is not some utopian dream. It is achievable with technology that exists right now and it is affordable, but it needs leadership from the top down and it needs energy from the bottom-up. 

So which future do you want? 

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